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FEBRUARY 26,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

ENDORSEMENT – Chris Christie endorsed Donald Trump today, which is like Bonnie endorsing Clyde.  These are two professional tough guys who don't exactly enhance the level of political rhetoric.  I suppose Christie can get something out of this, like a cabinet post, but if Trump loses he is vulnerable to the charge of opportunism and helping to cost the GOP a presidential election.  The fact is that most Republicans are not for Donald Trump, and he's got to push over that 50% mark to show that he's truly in control.  Trump is expected to sweep most of the Super Tuesday states this coming Tuesday, but I think predictions of anything beyond that are foolish.  This is a very unusual election year, and most predictions have fallen flat.  Let's just watch the actual returns.

HIGH CONTROVERSY – From the College Fix:   The notion of requiring students to take two courses in Western Civilization to earn a diploma is so controversial at Stanford University that a recently launched petition that calls for as much has propelled the school into a heated debate complete with name-calling, intimidation tactics and more.  On one side is the editorial board of the conservative-leaning Stanford Review, which introduced the petition Sunday asking peers to sign on, saying “Stanford University, an institution purportedly at the pinnacle of higher education, fails its students.”  But the requirement, if approved, would help change that, as “students would immerse themselves in the writings of Homer, Plato, Locke, Douglass, and de Beauvoir,” states a manifesto that accompanies the petition. “The scientific revolutions hundreds of Stanford students use would gain historical context. We would lament the horrors of slavery and oppression – and applaud those who fought for freedom.”  As it stands, Stanford students are only required to take a one-quarter “Thinking Matters” humanities class that is so broad in scope it can be met with courses such as “Breaking Codes, Finding Patterns” and “Food Talks: The Language of Food,” according to the manifesto, titled “The Case for a Western Civilization Requirement at Stanford.”  It probably will never happen.  Stanford, like the others, has gone PC.   

IRAN VOTE – From ABC News:   Reformists and moderate conservatives were leading in parliamentary elections according to early results Saturday, an indication President Hassan Rouhani may face a more friendly house to pursue his domestic agenda.  Early returns from Friday's polls show that none of the three competing political factions will win a majority in the 290-seat parliament. But reformists seeking greater democratic changes are heading toward their strongest presence since 2004 at the expense of hard-liners. Officials are yet to release early results but reports in the semiofficial Fars and Mehr news agencies and a  count conducted by The Associated Press show that hard-liners are the main losers of the vote.  Friday's election for Iran's parliament and a powerful clerical body known as the Assembly of Experts was the first since Iran's landmark nuclear deal with world powers last year.  Read stories like this with two eyes.  "Moderate" in Iran isn't like "moderate" in the U.S.  An Iranian moderate is just a little less fascist than the hardliners.

February 26, 2016       Permalink

RETURN OF PERRY? – AT 10:42 A.M. ET:  Former Governor Rick Perry of Texas did not have a good presidential primary in 2012, when he was knocked out of contention because of a disastrous debate performance.  He did not have a good presidential primary in 2015, when he was unable to shake the image from 2012.  But now, with the GOP in a kind of crisis, he's thinking of getting back in.

The main issue here is not whether Rick Perry, a good man, gets back into the race, but that so many Republicans are speaking of unusual alternatives, including the possibility of an open convention, which would become a free-for-all after the first ballot.  From Newsmax:   

Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry Thursday would not rule out his re-entering the Republican presidential race if a brokered convention occurred in Cleveland in July.

"The fact of the matter is I think this campaign, if there is an odd twist to it, it will be that no one gets enough of the nomination, gets enough of the delegates to get the nomination, and you go to a brokered convention," Perry, who dropped out of the nomination sweepstakes in June, told Erin Burnett on CNN. "At that particular point in time, it's a whole new ballgame for everyone."

"That could be a new ballgame for you," Burnett said.

"Everyone," Perry responded.

Perry, the 14-year governor who now supports Ted Cruz for the nomination, was responding to a Twitter post from conservative talk-radio host Erick Erickson, saying that he would support a third-party bid by Perry.

COMMENT:  I'm hoping for an open convention because I just don't think we can have a unified, effective party without the convention making its own choice.  There's too much bitterness, and Trump, who is favored for the nomination right now, is not the guy to end bitterness.

February 26, 2016       Permalink

HILLARY READY TO POUNCE – AT 9:51 A.M. ET:   Whether you like Donald Trump or not, one has to be worried over what the Democrats will do to him in a general-election campaign.  The Democrats are vicious, far more so than the Republicans.  Unfortunately, Trump gives them a great deal to be vicious about.

Donald Trump is a New York real-estate mogul.  Real estate is to New York what oil is to Texas.  It's the controlling industry, and making it in real estate is not for the faint of heart.  The boys fight hard, and there are more secrets housed in those buildings than tenants.  The Dems have a rich canvas on which to work.  From the conservative Washington Examiner: 

Donald Trump has failed again and again as a businessman, and he has avoided losing his own money by shoving the losses onto the people who put their trust in him.

If Trump is the nominee, disaffected voters supporting Trump in the presidential campaign will be the ruthless billionaire's next victims.

Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party will make that abundantly clear once Trump is the nominee. It won't be hard — they will just set up a camera, sit down with Trump victims and let these ordinary Americans tell the tale of how Donald Trump is a charlatan who enriched himself at the expense of ordinary people.

Democratic super PACs are already lining up Trump's victims for such a purpose, you can be totally sure. That's why any poll numbers suggesting Trump can beat Hillary should be doubted — they don't take into account the brutal campaign Hillary will wage on Trump.

"There's a mountain of *#*# the Democrats are going to dump on him if he is the nominee," says Liz Mair, a Republican operative running an anti-Trump super PAC called "Make America Awesome."

COMMENT:  Yes, that worries me.  The "oppo" research (opposition research) on Trump will be spectacular.  Just begin with clips of his obscenities, comments about women, wild attacks on anyone who criticizes him.  And you may be sure that Democratic lawyers are going through the records of his many, many lawsuits. 

Donald Trump is talented.  He clearly has tapped into the public's frustration.  He may even make an outstanding president.  But getting there will be brutal, and will make the primary campaign look like a badminton match. 

The public really knows very little about Trump.  The Democratic attack to come will be a major factor in shaping our perceptions.  Thus far Trump has held up very well.  He hasn't met the Clinton operation in practice. 

February 26, 2016       Permalink

IRAN VOTES – AT 9:14 A.M. ET:  Today is a critical day for international policy.  Iran elects a new parliament.  The question:  Will it tilt toward the so-called "moderates" (a term that has to be defined carefully), or toward the hardliners?  Both groups are happy to shout "Death to America," but the hardliners are more likely to carry out the threat sooner.  From Reuters: 

Millions of Iranians voted in high-stake elections on Friday that could shift the balance of power within the hardline-controlled Islamic elite by ushering in a reformist comeback or help conservatives tighten their grip on power.

The contest is seen by some analysts as a make-or-break moment that could shape the future for the next generation, in a country where nearly 60 per cent of the 80 million population is under 30. tmsnrt.rs/20VK0vG

There were early signs of enthusiastic participation in the first polls since a nuclear deal last year led to a lifting of sanctions and deeper diplomatic engagement abroad.

Long queues formed at polling stations in the capital and state television showed throngs of voters in Ahvaz and Shiraz. It was unclear how the turnout might shape the outcome.

"Whoever likes Iran and its dignity, greatness and glory should vote. Iran has enemies. They are eyeing us greedily," Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said after casting his ballot, in a reference to Western powers.

"Turnout in the elections should be so high to disappoint our enemies ... People should be observant and vote with open eyes and should vote wisely."

At stake is control of the 290-seat parliament and the 88-member Assembly of Experts, the body that has the power to appoint and dismiss the supreme leader, Iran's most powerful figure. Both are currently in the hands of hardliners.

During its next eight-year term it could name the successor to Khamenei, who is 76 and has been in power since 1989.

COMMENT:  I'd like to see the "moderates" win because any improvement is better than none at all.  But Khamenei will remain in power.  Don't expect Iran to suddenly become Canada.

February 26,  2016     Permalink 

FEBRUARY 25,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

THE DEBATE – The clear winner of tonight's GOP debate was Zoloft.  It was an ear-ringing affair, with the first serious attacks on Trump that we've seen, and Trump punching back.  From what I've seen thus far, and I concur, Rubio was the most effective debater, landing serious blows on Trump.  The question is, will it matter?  Trump voters have proved to be stubbornly loyal, willing to stay with Trump no matter what sins he commits.  A Bloomberg poll released just before the debate showed Trump leading in Southern, Bible-belt states, with 37% support.  Rubio and Cruz tie at 20% each.  It's now accepted by pundits that Trump will sweep the field next week on Super Tuesday, except for Cruz's home state of Texas.  There'll be another GOP debate next Thursday, from Detroit, if they can get the electricity on.  That debate will reflect Super Tuesday's results.

A REASON TO ELECT TRUMP – From the Washington Examiner:   Rev. Al Sharpton told attendees at a Center for American Progress Action Fund event Thursday he would flee the country if Donald Trump won the election, in order to avoid being deported by Trump.  Sharpton, a Democrat, had positive feedback for many of the Republican presidential candidates until he got to Trump.  "If Donald Trump is the nominee, I'm open to support anyone [else], while I'm also reserving my ticket to get out of here if he wins, only because he'd probably have me deported anyway," Sharpton told attendees, who responded in laughter.  Vote for Trump for a Sharpton-free society. 

WHAT A SCHOLAR – Ms. Hillary forgets some pretty basic history.  From Fox:   Constitution, Declaration of Independence ... whatever.  That seemed to be Hillary Clinton’s take on the nation’s two most important documents during an interview Wednesday, as she confused the texts in making the case for more gun laws.  The Democratic presidential front-runner mistakenly cited a “constitutional right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness” during the interview with host Steve Harvey....But the famous “life, liberty” line is, of course, from the Preamble to the Declaration of Independence, not the Constitution. It says: “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.”  Probably the greatest line written in American history, and the foundation of the American creed.  I wouldn't expect Hillary to know its origin, or care really.

GREAT LINE BY DOC – Dr. Ben Carson has a wonderful sense of humor, on display during the debate.  From the Washington Examiner:   Once again, Dr. Ben Carson became fed up with his lack of speaking time during a Republican presidential debate.  During a lengthy exchange between the four other candidates on stage Thursday night, Carson chimed in out of nowhere, asking for someone, anyone to attack him.  "Can somebody attack me, please?" Carson asked the candidates.  In recent debates, Carson has routinely been among the candidates with the least amount of speaking time. Dating back to the first debate in Cleveland, Carson has joked or complained about the lack of questions he's received.  A candidate gets time to respond if someone attacks him.  But no one wanted to attack gentle Ben.

February 25, 2016       Permalink

BULLETIN:  A new Quinnipiac poll shows Donald Trump leading Marco Rubio in Rubio's home state of Florida, 44-28%, with Ted Cruz trailing at 12%.   Florida votes March 15th.  This is devastating news for Rubio.  If he can't carry his own home state, he's probably out of the race.  Other polls show Ted Cruz carrying his home state of Texas on Tuesday.

TROUBLE IN RIVER CITY – AT 10:44 A.M. ET:   Always depend on Hillary Clinton to provide good scandal copy.  She has an expertise in that worthy of an honorary degree.  From Fox: 

Attorney General Loretta Lynch confirmed to Congress Wednesday that career Justice Department attorneys are working with FBI agents on the criminal investigation of Hillary Clinton’s email practices and the handling of classified material.

Legal experts say the assignment of career Justice Department attorneys to the case shows the FBI probe has progressed beyond the initial referral, or "matured," giving agents access to the U.S. government’s full investigative tool box, including subpoena power for individuals, business or phone records, as well as witnesses.

The Associated Press reported earlier this month that career lawyers were involved, but Lynch's comments are the most expansive to Congress.

"If the FBI makes the case that Hillary Clinton mishandled classified information and put America's security at risk, will you prosecute the case?” Republican Congressman John Carter asked Lynch during a budget hearing.

"Do you know of any efforts underway to undermine the FBI's investigation? And please look the American people in the eye and tell us what your position is as you are the chief prosecutor of the United States," Carter pressed.

Lynch replied, "...that matter is being handled by career independent law enforcement agents, FBI agents as well as the career independent attorneys in the Department of Justice. They follow the evidence, they look at the law and they'll make a recommendation to me when the time is appropriate."

COMMENT:  I can't see how this can be anything but devastating to Hillary.  It's a major investigation.  Some reports say that as many as 150 FBI agents are involved.  And now we know that Justice Department career lawyers – presumably non-partisan – are also involved.  This probe, more than anything else, could easily be the most important factor in who becomes the next president.

February 25, 2016       Permalink

A TRUMP TRIUMPH? – THAT'S WHAT ONE PREDICTION MODEL SAYS – AT 9:58 A.M. ET:  The claim is that this guy's model has predicted every presidential election but one going back 104 years.  I can't vouch for that, but the story is so fascinating.  From Daily Caller: 

A political science professor who claims his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election in the last 104 years has forecast that the odds of Donald Trump becoming America’s next president currently range from 97 percent to 99 percent.

The professor is Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University, reports The Statesman, the campus newspaper at the public bastion on New York’s Long Island.

Specifically, Norpoth predicts that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of beating Bernie Sanders.

The predictions assume Trump will actually become the 2016 presidential nominee of the Republican Party.

And...

Norpoth’s general election formula measures candidates’ performances in primaries in caucuses to gauge party unity and voter excitement. It also focuses on certain patterns in electoral cycles. One major assumption is that the party which has just held the presidency for two consecutive terms is less likely to win a third term.

The model has been correct for every election since 1912 except for the 1960 election — which pitted winner John F. Kennedy against loser Richard Nixon.

In total, Norpoth observed, his forecasting formula he has created has been correct 96.1 percent of the time since 1912.

COMMENT:  Norpoth also says that Republicans have a 61% chance of winning the presidency with any candidate.  Well, we'll see after the election. 

Please note that Urgent Agenda doesn't make predictions.  And I predict that will continue.

February 25, 2016      Permalink

ELECTION LATEST – AT 9:37 A.M. ET:  Five days before Super Tuesday, and a new poll is out from Investor's Business Daily: 

Despite her win in the Nevada caucuses Saturday, Hillary Clinton’s lead among Democrats over Bernie Sanders has evaporated nationally, 45% to 43%, according to the latest IBD/TIPP poll. Last month, Clinton topped Sanders 50% to 38%.

On the GOP side, Donald Trump held steady at 31%. Ted Cruz dropped a point to 20%. Marco Rubio, however, saw his support climb eight percentage points to reach 18% — a clear sign that much of the support of candidates dropping out the race have been gravitating to Rubio.

Meanwhile, Ben Carson has 8% and John Kasich has risen to 7%. Both are resisting pressure to step aside.

Trump’s lead, however, narrows considerably when first and second choices are combined. While 42% picked Trump as either their first or second choice, Cruz and Rubio were tied at 39%.

An analysis of the 12 states that vote for GOP candidates on Super Tuesday shows that Trump holds a similar lead, with 31% support. However, Rubio moves into second place at 23%, followed by Cruz at 20%.

Given Trump’s definitive win in Nevada on Tuesday, a string of victories on March 1 could give him a virtually insurmountable lead for the GOP nomination.

Clinton performs better in the Democrats’ Super Tuesday states, where she leads Sanders by 50% to 39%.

COMMENT:  That is one poll, but a respected one.  What the political world will be talking about from now on is convention delegates.  In a race for the presidential nomination, that is all that counts.  Conventional wisdom holds that it will be a Clinton versus Trump race.  But, on the Republican side at least, there could be an open convention, meaning that no candidate enters the national convention with enough votes to be nominated.  Generally, delegates are pledged to a particular candidate only through the first convention ballot.  Then, chaos, and great television, as the convention struggles to nominate.

We haven't had a contested (open) convention since 1976, when Ronald Reagan challenged incumbent President Gerald Ford.  Ford won the nomination but lost the election.  Reagan bounced back four years later, and won both.

February 25,  2016     Permalink